Warming seas could unbalance UK marine food webs, study warns

Warming waters around the UK and wider north-east Atlantic could alter marine biodiversity unevenly, according to a four-year study reported by the Guardian on 5 November 2026. Led by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science and published in Science Advances, the research projected changes under a scenario of 3C warming by 2100.

By mid-century, fish and seabed invertebrate diversity could rise by about 12%, while phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity could fall by roughly 3% and 7%, respectively. Researchers warned that greater predator diversity alongside declining prey diversity could disrupt food webs, weaken ecosystem resilience and jeopardise food security. Their analysis combined long-term datasets with machine-learning methods.

The findings have implications for marine conservation and fisheries management: the researchers said their work had been submitted to the government’s review of marine protected areas. They cautioned that biodiversity gains in some groups should not be treated as evidence of healthier ecosystems overall, because changes differ across the food web.